A acurácia das previsões de lucro tem relação com os vieses presentes nos relatórios dos analistas? Um estudo no Brasil e EUA
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.4270/ruc.2025106Mots-clés :
Acurácia dos Analistas, Vieses Comportamentais, Racionalidade LimitadaRésumé
Esse estudo teve como objetivo analisar a relação entre os vieses comportamentais dos analistas financeiros e a acurácia das previsões de lucro ao considerar aspectos distintos do ambiente em que as empresas estão inseridas. Portanto, a pesquisa considerou a análise de empresas brasileiras e norte-americanas de capital aberto, nos trimestres de 2019, aplicando testes de regressão com dados em painel. Os vieses comportamentais foram obtidos via análise de textual dos relatórios dos analistas, por meio do software Diction®. Os resultados indicaram que há diferença na relação entre os vieses e a acurácia dos analistas quando se observam países com características distintas. Para o Brasil, os relatórios dos analistas com viés otimista sinalizam para os investidores menor acurácia na previsão de lucro. Por outro lado, nos EUA, os relatórios otimistas estão relacionados com maior acurácia, mas os relatórios com vieses de realismo e comunalidade apresentam menor acurácia. A pesquisa contribui com a literatura indicando variáveis que devem ser incorporadas aos modelos de previsão da acurácia dos analistas, além de sinalizar aos investidores os vieses presentes nos relatórios que estão relacionados com maior ou menor acurácia, de modo a contribuir com suas decisões de investimento.
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• O(s) autor(es) garante(m) que a contribuição é original e inédita e que não está em processo de avaliação em outra(s) revista(s);
• A revista não se responsabiliza pelas opiniões, ideias e conceitos emitidos nos textos, por serem de inteira responsabilidade de seu(s) autor(es);
• É reservado aos editores o direito de proceder ajustes textuais e de adequação do artigo às normas da publicação;
• O(s) autor(es) declaram que o artigo não possui conflitos de interesse.
