¿La precisión de los pronósticos de ganancias está relacionada con los sesgos presentes en los informes de los analistas? Un estudio en Brasil y Estados Unidos
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.4270/ruc.2025106Palabras clave:
Precisión de los analistas, sesgos de comportamiento, Racionalidad LimitadaResumen
Este estudio tuvo como objetivo analizar la relación entre los sesgos de comportamiento de los analistas financieros y la precisión de las previsiones de beneficios al considerar diferentes aspectos del entorno en el que operan las empresas. Por lo tanto, la investigación consideró el análisis de empresas brasileñas y norteamericanas que cotizan en bolsa, durante los trimestres de 2019, aplicando técnicas de regresión con datos de panel. Los sesgos de comportamiento se obtuvieron mediante análisis textual de informes de analistas, utilizando el software Diction®. Los resultados indicaron que existe una diferencia en la relación entre los sesgos y la precisión de los analistas cuando se comparan países con diferentes características. En el caso de Brasil, los informes de analistas con un sesgo optimista indican a los inversores una menor precisión en las previsiones de beneficios. Por otro lado, en EE. UU., los informes optimistas se relacionan con una mayor precisión, pero los informes con sesgos de realismo y comunalidad presentan menor precisión. La investigación contribuye a la literatura al indicar variables que deben ser incorporadas en los modelos de predicción de la precisión de los analistas, además de señalar a los inversores los sesgos presentes en los informes que se relacionan con mayor o menor precisión, con el fin de apoyar sus decisiones de inversión.
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