MARKET TIMING Y CREACIÓN DE VALOR PARA LOS ACCIONISTAS DESDE LA PERSPECTIVA DE LA RETENCIÓN DE EFECTIVO

Autores/as

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4270/ruc.2022108

Palabras clave:

Market Timing, Retención de Efectivo, Creación de Valor

Resumen

Esta investigación tiene como objetivo investigar la relación entre la retención de efectivo y la creación de valor para los accionistas de empresas que utilizan la salida a bolsa como un momento oportuno para el comportamiento del market timing en el mercado de valores brasileño. La muestra del estudio está formada por 102 empresas no financieras listadas en B3 que realizaron una salida a bolsa entre 2004 y 2017, segregadas en dos grupos, timers y non-timers de mercado. En total, se realizaron 202 IPOs durante el período delimitado, además, se analizó el comportamiento del efectivo durante los ocho trimestres siguientes a las IPOs, resultando 816 observaciones. Para lograr el objetivo, se proponen dos modelos econométricos, uno para cada hipótesis formulada, y el método de análisis de datos utilizado es la regresión de panel dinámico con estimadores del GMM-System de una etapa. Los datos financieros, necesarios para el cálculo de las variables que componen los modelos econométricos, fueron recolectados utilizando la base de datos Refinitiv Eikon®. La evidencia de la estimación del Modelo I confirma la primera hipótesis, es decir, los timers de mercado retienen más efectivo que los non-timers. A su vez, los resultados de la estimación del Modelo II no son concluyentes, dado que la variable explicativa es estadísticamente insignificante, por lo que no es posible determinar la existencia de una relación entre la retención de efectivo y la creación de valor para los accionistas. Sin embargo, apesar de retener, en promedio, más efectivo que los non-timers, como lo demuestra el Modelo I, las empresas que utilizan la oferta pública inicial como un momento oportuno para el comportamiento de sincronización del mercado en el mercado de valores brasileño tienen un valor creado menor para los accionistas, como lo muestra el Modelo II, dado que el MVA de los timers de mercado crece en 247 millones (R$) de un período a otro, mientras que el promedio de crecimiento de los non-timers es de 534 millones (R$) de un período a otro. una diferencia de 287 millones (R$). Es posible que este resultado se derive del alto costo de oportunidad del efectivo ocioso, ya que, como el market timing es una práctica oportunista, los gerentes, en general, no tienen un destino inmediato para el recurso constituido.

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Publicado

2023-07-07

Número

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Sección Nacional