MARKET TIMING AND VALUE CREATION FOR SHAREHOLDERS FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF CASH HOLDING
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.4270/ruc.2022108Keywords:
Market Timing, Cash Retention, Value CreationAbstract
This research investigates the relationship between cash retention and value creation for the shareholders of companies that use the IPO as an opportune moment for market timing behavior in the Brazilian stock market. The study sample consists of 102 non-financial companies listed on B3 that carried out an IPO between 2004 and 2017, segregated into two groups, market timers, and non-timers. In total, 202 IPOs took place during the period; cash behavior was also analyzed during the eight quarters following the IPOs, resulting in 816 observations. To achieve the objective, two econometric models are proposed, one for each formulated hypothesis, and the data analysis method used is dynamic panel regression with one-stage GMM-System estimators. The financial data necessary for calculating the variables that make up the econometric models were collected using the Refinitiv Eikon® database. The evidence from the Model I estimation confirms the first hypothesis: Market timers retain more cash than non-timers. In turn, the findings of the estimation of Model II are inconclusive, given that the explanatory variable is statistically insignificant, which is why it is not possible to determine the existence of a relationship between cash retention and shareholders' value creation. However, despite retaining, on average, more cash than non-timers, as evidenced by Model I, companies that use the IPO as an opportune moment for market timing behavior in the Brazilian stock market have lower value created for shareholders, as shown by Model II, given that the MVA of market timers grows by 247 million (R$) from one period to the other, while the average growth of non-timers is 534 million (R$) from one period to the next for the other, a difference of 287 million (R$). This result may derive from the high opportunity cost of idle cash since, as market timing is an opportunistic practice, managers generally do not have an immediate destination for the constituted resource.
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References
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Allini, A., Rakha, S., McMillan, D. G., & Caldarelli, A. (2018). Pecking order and market timing theory in emerging markets: The case of Egyptian firms. Research in International Business and Finance, 44, 297-308.
Almeida, H., Campello, M., & Weisbach, M. S. (2004). The cash flow sensitivity of cash. The Journal of Finance, 59(4), 1777-1804.
Al-Najjar, B. (2015). The effect of governance mechanisms on small and medium-sized enterprise cash holdings: evidence from the United Kingdom. Journal of Small Business Management, 53(2), 303-320.
Alsoboa, S. S. (2017). The influence of economic value added and return on assets on created shareholders value: A comparative study in Jordanian public industrial firms. International Journal of Economic and Finance, 9(4), 63-78.
Alti, A. (2006). How persistent is the impact of market timing on capital structure? The Journal of Finance, 61(4), 1681-1710.
Antoniou, A., Zhao, H., & Zhou, B. (2009). Corporate debt issues and interest rate risk management: Hedging or market timing? Journal of Financial Markets, 12(3), 500-520.
Ardalan, K. (2017). Capital structure theory: Reconsidered. Research in International Business and Finance, 39, 696-710.
Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277-297.
Arosa, C. M. V., Richie, N., & Schuhmann, P. W. (2014). The impact of culture on market timing in capital structure choices. Research in International Business and Finance, 31, 178-192.
Asquith, P., & Mullins, D. W. (1986). Equity issues and offering dilution. Journal of Financial Economics, 15(1-2), 61-89.
Babenko, I., Tserlukevich, Y., & Wan, P. (2020). Is market timing good for shareholders? Management Science, 1-19.
Baker, M., Greenwood, R., & Wurgler, J. (2003). The maturity of debt issues and predictable variation in bond returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 70(2), 261-291.
Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2002). Market timing and capital structure. The Journal of Finance, 57(1), 1-32.
Baltagi, B. (2008). Econometric analysis of panel data. 4th. ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Bao, D., Chan, K. C., & Zhang, W. (2012). Asymmetric cash flow sensitivity of cash holdings. Journal of Corporate Finance, 18(4), 690-700.
Bates, T. W., Kahle, K. M., & Stulz, R. M. (2009). Why do U.S. firms hold so much more cash than they used to? The Journal of Finance, 64(5), 1985-2021.
Bigelli, M., & Sánchez-Vidal, J. (2012). Cash holdings in private firms. Journal of Banking and Finance, 36(1), 26-35.
Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115-143.
Bolton, P., Chen, H., & Wang, N. (2013). Market timing, investment, and risk management. Journal of Financial Economics, 109(1), 40-62.
Cameron, A. C., & Trivedi, P. K. (2005). Microeconometrics: Methods and applications. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Chen, Y., Dou, P. Y., Rhee, S. G., Truong, C., & Veeraraghavan, M. (2015). National culture and corporate cash holdings around the world. Journal of Banking and Finance, 50, 1-18.
Costa, V. S. I., & Machado, M. A. V. (2014). Market timing, estágio do ciclo de vida e ofertas públicas de ações. Sociedade, Contabilidade e Gestão, 9(2), 117-135.
DeAngelo, H., DeAngelo, L., & Stulz, R. M. (2010). Seasoned equity offerings, market timing, and the corporate lifecycle. Journal of Financial Economics, 95(3), 275-295.
Dehling, H., Vogel, D., Wendler, M., & Wied, D. (2016). Testing for changes in Kendall’s Tau. Econometric Theory, 1-35.
Denis, D. J. (2011). Financial flexibility and corporate liquidity. Journal of Corporate Finance, 17(3), 667-674.
Dittmar, A., Mahrt-Smith, J., & Servaes, H. (2003). International corporate governance and corporate cash holdings. The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 38(1), 111-133.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (2002). Testing trade-off and pecking order predictions about dividends and debt. The Review of Financial Studies, 15(1), 1-33.
Ferreira, M. A., & Vilela, A. S. (2004). Why do firms hold cash? Evidence from EMU countries. European Financial Management, 10(2), 295-319.
García-Teruel, P. J., & Martínez-Solano, P. (2008). On the determinants of SME cash holdings: Evidence from Spain. Journal of Business, Finance and Accounting, 35(1-2), 127-149.
Graham, J. R., & Harvey, C. R. (2001). The theory and practice of corporate finance: Evidence from the field. Journal of Financial Economics, 60(2-3), 187-243.
Greene, W. H. (2012). Econometric analysis. 7th. ed. Prentice Hall.
Habib, A., & Hasan, M. M. (2017). Social capital and corporate cash holdings. International Review of Economics and Finance, 52, 1-20.
Han, S., & Qiu, J. (2007). Corporate precautionary cash holdings. Journal of Corporate Finance, 13(1), 43-57.
Harford, J., Mansi, S. A., & Maxwell, W. F. (2008). Corporate governance and firm cash holdings in the US. Journal of Financial Economics, 87(3), 535-555.
Hovakimian, A. (2006). Are observed capital structures determined by equity market timing? The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 41(1), 221-243.
Hovakimian, A., Opler, T., & Titman, S. (2001). The debt-equity choice. The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 36(1), 1-24.
Hsiao, C. (2014). Analysis of panel data. 3th. ed. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Huang, R., & Ritter, J. R. (2009). Testing theories of capital structure and estimating the speed of adjustment. The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 44(2), 237-271.
Iyer, S., & Javadi, S. (2018). Beyond market timing theory. Studies in Economics and Finance, 35(4), 458-480.
Jalilvand, A., & Harris, R. S. (1984). Corporate behavior in adjusting to capital structure and dividend targets: an econometric study. The Journal of Finance, 39(1), 127-145.
Jensen, M. C. (1986). Agency costs of free cash flow, corporate finance, and takeovers. The American Economic Review, 76(2), 323-329.
Jensen, M. C., & Meckling, W. H. (1976). Theory of the firm: managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure. Journal of Financial Economics, 3(4), 305-360.
Jung, K., Kim, Y.-C., & Stulz, R. M. (1996). Timing, investment opportunities, managerial discretion, and the security issue decision. Journal of Financial Economics, 42(2), 159-185.
Kayhan, A., & Titman, S. (2007). Firms’ histories and their capital structures. Journal of Financial Economics, 83(1), 1-32.
Keynes, J. M. (1937). The general theory of employment, interest and money. New York: Macmillan Cambridge University Press.
Le, D. H., Tran, P. L., Ta, T. P., & Vu, D. M. (2018). Determinants of corporate cash holding: Evidence from UK listed firms. Business and Economic Horizons, 14(3), 561-569.
Loughran, T., & Ritter, J. R. (1995). The new issues puzzle. The Journal of Finance, 50(1), 23-51.
Ma, Y. (2012). On inference for Kendall’s Tau within a longitudinal data setting. Journal of Applied Statistics, 39(11), 2441-2452.
Medeiros, A. W., & Mól, A. L. R. (2017). Tangibilidade e intangibilidade na identificação do desempenho persistente: evidências no mercado brasileiro. Revista de Administração Contemporânea, 21(2), 184-202.
Mendes, E. A., Basso, L. F. C., & Kayo, E. K. (2009). Estrutura de capital e janelas de oportunidade: testes no mercado brasileiro. Revista de Administração Mackenzie, 10(6), 78-100.
Miller, M. H., & Orr, D. (1966). A model of the demand for money by firms. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 80(3), 413-435.
Modigliani, F., & Miller, M. H. (1958). The cost of capital, corporation finance, and the theory of investment. The American Economic Review, 48(3), 261-297.
Muradoglu, Y. G., & Sivaprasad, S. (2012). Capital structure and abnormal returns. International Business Review, 21(3), 328-341.
Myers, S. C. (1977). Determinants of corporate borrowing. Journal of Financial Economics, 5(2), 147-175.
Opler, T., Pinkowitz, L., Stulz, R., & Williamson, R. (1999). The determinants and implications of corporate cash holdings. Journal of Financial Economics, 52(1), 3-46.
Ozkan, A., & Ozkan, N. (2004). Corporate cash holdings: an empirical investigation of UK companies. Journal of Banking and Finance, 28(9), 2103-2134.
Pagano, M., Panetta, F., & Zingales, L. (1998). Why do companies go public? An empirical analysis. The Journal of Finance, 53(1), 27-64.
Pesaran, M. H. (2015). Time series and panel data econometrics. New York: Oxford University Press.
Petersen, M. A., & Rajan, R. G. (2002). Does still matter? The information revolution in small business lending. The Journal of Finance, 57(6), 2533-2570.
Rajan, R. G., & Servaes, H. (1997). Analyst following of initial public offerings. The Journal of Finance, 52(2), 507-529.
Rajan, R. G., & Zingales, L. (1995). What do we know about capital structure? Some evidence from international data. The Journal of Finance, 50(5), 1421-1460.
Rapp, M. S., Schmid, T., & Urban, D. (2014). The value of financial flexibility and corporate financial policy. Journal of Corporate Finance, 29, 288-302.
Ritter, J. R. (1991). The long-run performance of initial public offerings. The Journal of Finance, 46(1), 3-27.
Rossi Jr., J. L., & Marotta, M. (2010). Equity market timing: Testando através dos IPOs no mercado brasileiro. Revista Brasileira de Finanças, 8(1), 85-101.
Saputra, W. E., Sukoco, A., Suyono, J., & Elisabeth, D. R. (2019). Analysis of Economic Value Added and Market Value Added to measure financial performance in pulp and paper companies. International Journal of Enterpreneurship and Business Development, 3(1), 77-85.
Siburian, E., & Yohanes, A. (2019). Shareholder value creation measurement analysis in healthcare, materials, and real estate industry in Indonesia. Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research, 89, 380-387.
Simmons-Suer, B. (2018). How relevant is capital structure for aggregate investment? A regime-switching approach. International Review of Economics and Finance, 53, 109-117.
Song, K. (2009). Does debt market timing increase firm value? Applied Economics, 41(20), 2605-2617.
Stewart, G. B. (1991). The quest for value: the EVA management guide. New York: Harper Business.
Taggart, R. A. (1977). A model of corporate financing decisions. The Journal of Finance, 32(5), 1467-1484.
Wadhwa, K., & Syamala, S. (2018). Market timing and pseudo market timing: an empirical examination of IPOs in India. Managerial Finance, 44(2), 160-177.
Wooldridge, J. M. (2013). Introductory econometrics: a modern approach. 5th. ed. Mason: South-Western Cengage Learning.
Yung, K., Li, D. D., & Jian, Y. (2015). The value of corporate financial flexibility in emerging countries. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 32-33, 25-41.
Zavertiaeva, M., & Nechaeva, I. (2017). Impact of market timing on the capital structure of Russian companies. Journal of Economics and Business, 92, 10-28.
Allini, A., Rakha, S., McMillan, D. G., & Caldarelli, A. (2018). Pecking order and market timing theory in emerging markets: The case of Egyptian firms. Research in International Business and Finance, 44, 297-308.
Almeida, H., Campello, M., & Weisbach, M. S. (2004). The cash flow sensitivity of cash. The Journal of Finance, 59(4), 1777-1804.
Al-Najjar, B. (2015). The effect of governance mechanisms on small and medium-sized enterprise cash holdings: evidence from the United Kingdom. Journal of Small Business Management, 53(2), 303-320.
Alsoboa, S. S. (2017). The influence of economic value added and return on assets on created shareholders value: A comparative study in Jordanian public industrial firms. International Journal of Economic and Finance, 9(4), 63-78.
Alti, A. (2006). How persistent is the impact of market timing on capital structure? The Journal of Finance, 61(4), 1681-1710.
Antoniou, A., Zhao, H., & Zhou, B. (2009). Corporate debt issues and interest rate risk management: Hedging or market timing? Journal of Financial Markets, 12(3), 500-520.
Ardalan, K. (2017). Capital structure theory: Reconsidered. Research in International Business and Finance, 39, 696-710.
Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277-297.
Arosa, C. M. V., Richie, N., & Schuhmann, P. W. (2014). The impact of culture on market timing in capital structure choices. Research in International Business and Finance, 31, 178-192.
Asquith, P., & Mullins, D. W. (1986). Equity issues and offering dilution. Journal of Financial Economics, 15(1-2), 61-89.
Babenko, I., Tserlukevich, Y., & Wan, P. (2020). Is market timing good for shareholders? Management Science, 1-19.
Baker, M., Greenwood, R., & Wurgler, J. (2003). The maturity of debt issues and predictable variation in bond returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 70(2), 261-291.
Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2002). Market timing and capital structure. The Journal of Finance, 57(1), 1-32.
Baltagi, B. (2008). Econometric analysis of panel data. 4th. ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Bao, D., Chan, K. C., & Zhang, W. (2012). Asymmetric cash flow sensitivity of cash holdings. Journal of Corporate Finance, 18(4), 690-700.
Bates, T. W., Kahle, K. M., & Stulz, R. M. (2009). Why do U.S. firms hold so much more cash than they used to? The Journal of Finance, 64(5), 1985-2021.
Bigelli, M., & Sánchez-Vidal, J. (2012). Cash holdings in private firms. Journal of Banking and Finance, 36(1), 26-35.
Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115-143.
Bolton, P., Chen, H., & Wang, N. (2013). Market timing, investment, and risk management. Journal of Financial Economics, 109(1), 40-62.
Cameron, A. C., & Trivedi, P. K. (2005). Microeconometrics: Methods and applications. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Chen, Y., Dou, P. Y., Rhee, S. G., Truong, C., & Veeraraghavan, M. (2015). National culture and corporate cash holdings around the world. Journal of Banking and Finance, 50, 1-18.
Costa, V. S. I., & Machado, M. A. V. (2014). Market timing, estágio do ciclo de vida e ofertas públicas de ações. Sociedade, Contabilidade e Gestão, 9(2), 117-135.
DeAngelo, H., DeAngelo, L., & Stulz, R. M. (2010). Seasoned equity offerings, market timing, and the corporate lifecycle. Journal of Financial Economics, 95(3), 275-295.
Dehling, H., Vogel, D., Wendler, M., & Wied, D. (2016). Testing for changes in Kendall’s Tau. Econometric Theory, 1-35.
Denis, D. J. (2011). Financial flexibility and corporate liquidity. Journal of Corporate Finance, 17(3), 667-674.
Dittmar, A., Mahrt-Smith, J., & Servaes, H. (2003). International corporate governance and corporate cash holdings. The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 38(1), 111-133.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (2002). Testing trade-off and pecking order predictions about dividends and debt. The Review of Financial Studies, 15(1), 1-33.
Ferreira, M. A., & Vilela, A. S. (2004). Why do firms hold cash? Evidence from EMU countries. European Financial Management, 10(2), 295-319.
García-Teruel, P. J., & Martínez-Solano, P. (2008). On the determinants of SME cash holdings: Evidence from Spain. Journal of Business, Finance and Accounting, 35(1-2), 127-149.
Graham, J. R., & Harvey, C. R. (2001). The theory and practice of corporate finance: Evidence from the field. Journal of Financial Economics, 60(2-3), 187-243.
Greene, W. H. (2012). Econometric analysis. 7th. ed. Prentice Hall.
Habib, A., & Hasan, M. M. (2017). Social capital and corporate cash holdings. International Review of Economics and Finance, 52, 1-20.
Han, S., & Qiu, J. (2007). Corporate precautionary cash holdings. Journal of Corporate Finance, 13(1), 43-57.
Harford, J., Mansi, S. A., & Maxwell, W. F. (2008). Corporate governance and firm cash holdings in the US. Journal of Financial Economics, 87(3), 535-555.
Hovakimian, A. (2006). Are observed capital structures determined by equity market timing? The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 41(1), 221-243.
Hovakimian, A., Opler, T., & Titman, S. (2001). The debt-equity choice. The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 36(1), 1-24.
Hsiao, C. (2014). Analysis of panel data. 3th. ed. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Huang, R., & Ritter, J. R. (2009). Testing theories of capital structure and estimating the speed of adjustment. The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 44(2), 237-271.
Iyer, S., & Javadi, S. (2018). Beyond market timing theory. Studies in Economics and Finance, 35(4), 458-480.
Jalilvand, A., & Harris, R. S. (1984). Corporate behavior in adjusting to capital structure and dividend targets: an econometric study. The Journal of Finance, 39(1), 127-145.
Jensen, M. C. (1986). Agency costs of free cash flow, corporate finance, and takeovers. The American Economic Review, 76(2), 323-329.
Jensen, M. C., & Meckling, W. H. (1976). Theory of the firm: managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure. Journal of Financial Economics, 3(4), 305-360.
Jung, K., Kim, Y.-C., & Stulz, R. M. (1996). Timing, investment opportunities, managerial discretion, and the security issue decision. Journal of Financial Economics, 42(2), 159-185.
Kayhan, A., & Titman, S. (2007). Firms’ histories and their capital structures. Journal of Financial Economics, 83(1), 1-32.
Keynes, J. M. (1937). The general theory of employment, interest and money. New York: Macmillan Cambridge University Press.
Le, D. H., Tran, P. L., Ta, T. P., & Vu, D. M. (2018). Determinants of corporate cash holding: Evidence from UK listed firms. Business and Economic Horizons, 14(3), 561-569.
Loughran, T., & Ritter, J. R. (1995). The new issues puzzle. The Journal of Finance, 50(1), 23-51.
Ma, Y. (2012). On inference for Kendall’s Tau within a longitudinal data setting. Journal of Applied Statistics, 39(11), 2441-2452.
Medeiros, A. W., & Mól, A. L. R. (2017). Tangibilidade e intangibilidade na identificação do desempenho persistente: evidências no mercado brasileiro. Revista de Administração Contemporânea, 21(2), 184-202.
Mendes, E. A., Basso, L. F. C., & Kayo, E. K. (2009). Estrutura de capital e janelas de oportunidade: testes no mercado brasileiro. Revista de Administração Mackenzie, 10(6), 78-100.
Miller, M. H., & Orr, D. (1966). A model of the demand for money by firms. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 80(3), 413-435.
Modigliani, F., & Miller, M. H. (1958). The cost of capital, corporation finance, and the theory of investment. The American Economic Review, 48(3), 261-297.
Muradoglu, Y. G., & Sivaprasad, S. (2012). Capital structure and abnormal returns. International Business Review, 21(3), 328-341.
Myers, S. C. (1977). Determinants of corporate borrowing. Journal of Financial Economics, 5(2), 147-175.
Opler, T., Pinkowitz, L., Stulz, R., & Williamson, R. (1999). The determinants and implications of corporate cash holdings. Journal of Financial Economics, 52(1), 3-46.
Ozkan, A., & Ozkan, N. (2004). Corporate cash holdings: an empirical investigation of UK companies. Journal of Banking and Finance, 28(9), 2103-2134.
Pagano, M., Panetta, F., & Zingales, L. (1998). Why do companies go public? An empirical analysis. The Journal of Finance, 53(1), 27-64.
Pesaran, M. H. (2015). Time series and panel data econometrics. New York: Oxford University Press.
Petersen, M. A., & Rajan, R. G. (2002). Does still matter? The information revolution in small business lending. The Journal of Finance, 57(6), 2533-2570.
Rajan, R. G., & Servaes, H. (1997). Analyst following of initial public offerings. The Journal of Finance, 52(2), 507-529.
Rajan, R. G., & Zingales, L. (1995). What do we know about capital structure? Some evidence from international data. The Journal of Finance, 50(5), 1421-1460.
Rapp, M. S., Schmid, T., & Urban, D. (2014). The value of financial flexibility and corporate financial policy. Journal of Corporate Finance, 29, 288-302.
Ritter, J. R. (1991). The long-run performance of initial public offerings. The Journal of Finance, 46(1), 3-27.
Rossi Jr., J. L., & Marotta, M. (2010). Equity market timing: Testando através dos IPOs no mercado brasileiro. Revista Brasileira de Finanças, 8(1), 85-101.
Saputra, W. E., Sukoco, A., Suyono, J., & Elisabeth, D. R. (2019). Analysis of Economic Value Added and Market Value Added to measure financial performance in pulp and paper companies. International Journal of Enterpreneurship and Business Development, 3(1), 77-85.
Siburian, E., & Yohanes, A. (2019). Shareholder value creation measurement analysis in healthcare, materials, and real estate industry in Indonesia. Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research, 89, 380-387.
Simmons-Suer, B. (2018). How relevant is capital structure for aggregate investment? A regime-switching approach. International Review of Economics and Finance, 53, 109-117.
Song, K. (2009). Does debt market timing increase firm value? Applied Economics, 41(20), 2605-2617.
Stewart, G. B. (1991). The quest for value: the EVA management guide. New York: Harper Business.
Taggart, R. A. (1977). A model of corporate financing decisions. The Journal of Finance, 32(5), 1467-1484.
Wadhwa, K., & Syamala, S. (2018). Market timing and pseudo market timing: an empirical examination of IPOs in India. Managerial Finance, 44(2), 160-177.
Wooldridge, J. M. (2013). Introductory econometrics: a modern approach. 5th. ed. Mason: South-Western Cengage Learning.
Yung, K., Li, D. D., & Jian, Y. (2015). The value of corporate financial flexibility in emerging countries. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 32-33, 25-41.
Zavertiaeva, M., & Nechaeva, I. (2017). Impact of market timing on the capital structure of Russian companies. Journal of Economics and Business, 92, 10-28.
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2023-07-07
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