THE PRECISION IN FORECASTING THE BUDGET INCOMES BEFORE AND AFTER THE LAW OF FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY

Abstract

This work has as objective to accomplish a research with public budgets in a city of medium size to determine the relationship among the foreseen budget income and the one increased accomplished budget with the new Law of Fiscal Responsibility. The study begins with planning concepts, both in the public and in the private sector. It talks about strategic and operational planning and their similarities in the public area, which are the Pluri-annual Plan and the Budget Law Guidelines. It describes the budget picture focusing mainly the on Budget Law, brought by the public power. With basis on this theoretical foundation, the research is accomplished with public budgets in order to verify the precision of the relationship among the expected and accomplished budget income from 1995 to 2003, dividing the sample in two extracts, one in the period previous to the Fiscal Responsibility and the other subsequent to referred law. Finally, theresearch analysis shows, with the use of lineal regressions and analysis of the results for the establishment of an evolution or not of the relationship among foreseen budget income and accomplished along the years. The research reveals an improvement of the precision after the coming of the Law of Fiscal Responsibility, in comparison with the period previous to the law. The research concludes, pointing to some considerations on the extension of this work for other public budgets. Keywords: Public budget. Forecast of incomes. Law of Fiscal Responsibility.