ANÁLISIS DE LA RELACIÓN ENTRE HUMOR EXPRESADO EN TWITTER, RENTABILIDAD, VOLATILIDAD Y VOLUMEN NEGOCIADO EN LA BOLSA DE VALORES BRASILEÑA

Autores/as

  • Lyss Paula de Oliveira Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso e Universidade de Brasília
  • César Augusto Tibúrcio Silva Universidade de Brasília e Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4270/ruc.2023114

Palabras clave:

Humor, Mercado de acciones, Twitter

Resumen

El objetivo del estudio es investigar la relación entre los cambios de humor expresados ​​en Twitter, los rendimientos de las acciones, la volatilidad y el volumen de negociación en el mercado de valores brasileño. La muestra consistió en datos diarios sobre el estado de ánimo expresado en Twitter y el Ibovespa. Estos datos se analizaron mediante una regresión cuantil, en la que se investigó el impacto que tiene en el mercado de valores la variación del estado de ánimo expresado en la plataforma, debido al rápido y amplio alcance, el efecto red y el contagio emocional que genera el medio. El tema es original, con un interés creciente en la investigación que involucra las redes sociales, el sentimiento expresado y su relación con la toma de decisiones en el mercado de valores. El estudio mostró que la variación en el estado de ánimo tiene una relación negativa con el volumen negociado y una relación positiva con la volatilidad del Ibovespa, o sea, los inversionistas tienden a estar menos dispuestos a operar cuando el estado de ánimo es oscilante y que su variación contribuye a la aumentar la volatilidad de las acciones. Hay un cambio inverso en el movimiento de los rendimientos de las acciones a medida que cambia el estado de ánimo de Twitter. La relación es negativa cuando la variación del estado de ánimo es baja y positiva cuando es alta. Estos resultados contribuyen a los involucrados en el mercado de valores al mostrar que el humor es un elemento que afecta los precios de los activos, como inversores, analistas financieros y, en particular, los reguladores que han mostrado interés en monitorear la difusión de información financiera en las redes sociales, como como la actuación de los influencers digitales. El estudio también trajo contribuciones teóricas a la literatura y la academia al discutir, de manera innovadora, un tema en creciente desarrollo.

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Publicado

2025-02-28

Cómo citar

Oliveira, L. P. de, & Silva, C. A. T. (2025). ANÁLISIS DE LA RELACIÓN ENTRE HUMOR EXPRESADO EN TWITTER, RENTABILIDAD, VOLATILIDAD Y VOLUMEN NEGOCIADO EN LA BOLSA DE VALORES BRASILEÑA. Revista Universo Contábil, 19(1). https://doi.org/10.4270/ruc.2023114

Número

Sección

Sección Nacional