BRICS: LIQUIDEZ, CONSUMO E RELEVÂNCIA DE POLÍTICAS DE PRODUTIVIDADE E DE COMÉRCIO INTERNACIONAL PARA O IED
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.4270/ruc.2019317Keywords:
Consumo, Crédito, Crédito Bancário, Investimento Estrangeiro Direto, Modelos para Dados em Painel.Abstract
É avaliada a relação da expansão da liquidez ao setor privado e dos fluxos de IED com o Consumo no BRICS. Os resultados das regressões de dados em painel empregadas indicam que: (i) enquanto o IED tem relação negativa com o Consumo, há a ligação positiva entre o Crédito Bancário e o Consumo, e este não tem persistência; (ii) o relacionamento do Consumo com Crédito Bancário é maior do que com a Riqueza Financeira, a Riqueza Humana e o IED; e iii) a majoração da produção é orientadora do IED. Com base nestes resultados o artigo contribui aos estudos acerca do Crédito Bancário, Consumo e IED, bem como aos formuladores de políticas econômicas, cujas decisões impactam a Contabilidade Nacional, com as seguintes recomendações: no BRICS, o Consumo não é o orientador do IED, mas a majoração da produção interna do país que, caso não seja consumida internamente, pode ser direcionada ao exterior. Neste sentido, para atrair o IED, é importante estimular a produtividade e o aumento das exportações simultaneamente. Além disso, dada a ligação entre Consumo e Crédito Bancário, e entre Crédito Bancário e estabilidade monetária, merece atenção a relação entre as políticas de estabilidade monetária e de sustentação do Consumo pelo crescimento do Crédito Bancário. Isso porque o Crédito Bancário pode alcançar níveis elevados de difícil adequação, ocasionando aumento da instabilidade econômica no longo prazo.
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